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Posts Tagged ‘Comps’

Baton Rouge Real Estate Trends

Are Baton Rouge Home Sales Stalling Under $140K Range? Reason Low Appraisals?

http://www.batonrougerealestatetrends.net/ - Are Greater Baton Rouge Home Sales Stalling In The Under $140K Range? This is a post below I made to the Baton Rouge Real Estate Buzz Facebook Page Group on April 4, 2011.

baton-rouge-real-estate-buzz-low-appraisals-post

 

I’m noticing a trend in the $100K to $140K range where home sales have slowed, if not stalled. I’m reading about mortgages drying up for some. I’m looking at a 1004MC or Market Conditions Form right now in 70810 Area 53 where 12 months ago there were 17 sales and 2 months supply and in First Quarter 2011 only 1 sale in current 3 month quarter and 49 month supply. Of course, Baton Rouge home sales aren’t totally stalled for all price ranges, but for the under $140K range, there certainly has been a slowdown and increase in supply. Here’s the recent examples below.

This 1004MC or Market Conditions Report Based On Sub-Market Solds and Listings For an overbuilt home in Hermitage Subdivision, but using 1,200sf to 2300sf lowered price homes as comps in Area 53. From 17 sales 12 months ago to only 1 in current 3 months. Months supply of inventory 12 months ago was 21 months and currently it’s 48 months. Median sales price appeared to remain stable. It actually increased, BUT trend is not called just based on 1 sale.

1004mc-baton-rouge-real-estate

 

SAME TREND IN DENHAM SPRINGS FOR 2 HOMES. I saw this exact same trend in Denham Springs last week. A couple purchased a home for $141K in 2007, surely a Post Katrina high price, and it appraised in low $130s in 2011 due to expected market correction. There was going to be a correction! 1004MC or Market Conditions Data showed 8 sales and 9 month supply 12 months ago and only 2 sales and 36 month supply in current 3 month period. In this case, median sales prices had declined, corrected.

This 1004MC Based On Sub-Market Solds and Listings For a 1,500sf 40 yr old home in South Woodcrest Subdivision. From 9 sales 12 months ago to only 1 in current 3 months for past 2 quarters. Months supply of inventory 12 months ago was only 4 months and currently it’s 45 months. Median Sales Price was $128,450 12 months ago and is now $124,125, a dip of -3.4%. Also, the Median Sold Days On The Market increased from 76 days 12 months ago to 191 in Q1 2011 .

1004mc-denham-springs-market

This 1004MC or Market Conditions Report Based On Sub-Market Solds and Listings For a 1,150sf 40 yr old home in Sara Estate Subdivision. From 9 sales 12 months ago to only 1 in current 3 months for past 2 quarters. Months supply of inventory 12 months ago was only 4 months and currently it’s 45 months. Median sales price appeared to remain stable.

1004mc-denham-springs-housing-market

 

The Positive In The Market! I do know there is a lot of positive chatter from local Real Estate Agents on FB on the uptick in home buyer interest….and that’s a positive for the market.

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PART OF THE REASON FOR “LOW APPRAISALS”. As home appraisers, the Big Banks are really concerned about Collateral Risk and want to know much more about the markets they lend in from the home appraisal. This is why today’s home appraiser works a couple of hours longer on each report to deliver all of this extra data, to better understand the markets they operate in and apply market based adjustments, whether those adjustments support a purchase agreement or not. Stats like I’m reporting here aren’t obvious on the surface when it comes to pricing a home for a listing BUT are made more transparent at appraisal time. Such stats as 45 months supply, declining median sales prices and average days on the market of 191 days do influence the final outcome on an appraisal and helps the lender make the decision as to if they are going to take the risk to lend in a market. Underwriters can choose to “cut” the appraised value.

In my opinion, sometimes a “Low Appraisal” isn’t really a low appraisal but more of a reflection on the reality in that market at that time period. And, that period of time could be months and months after that Agent’s sign went into the ground in front of that home. Markets Change! After all, if the market indicators above in the 1004MC were known to only the Appraiser and not known by the Agent marketing the home, then can you now see how and why appraisers are armed with more knowledge of market interaction? And, in the case where median sales prices were declining, can you see how that if this is not known by listing agents the trouble this causes at appraisal time? This is the newer depth of market analysis we appraisers are seeing in the markets we operate in AND the market analysis the average real estate agent is not seeing in the same market. Can you understand now why Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac, FHA, RD, VA and Banks want appraisers looking at these numbers more closely? I as a home appraiser certainly can.

Sometimes low appraisals happen because the overpriced listing was based on what the seller wanted versus pricing that home based on market support. Sometimes low appraisals happen because the home wasn’t properly measured and may be smaller than stated. There is supposed to be a real estate professional measure each listing based on the National ANSI Standards, whether that person be the actual Agent, their team or an appraiser. Sometimes low appraisals happen because excessive seller paid concessions were not deducted from the comps used by Agent to establish the listing price. Fannie Mae instructs appraisers to deduct excessive seller paid concessions and expects Agents to do the same at listing time. And, when the comps or solds used in the appraisal state seller paid concessions of $6,000 to $8,000 to $10,000 to $12,000, then those excessive concessions will be deducted from those comps. If typical is $3,000, then in the example above, -$3000, $-5000, -$7,000 and -$9,000 will be deducted to bring these comps back down to market normalcy! Fannie Mae, FHA and lenders know that when there is no “skin-in-the-game” or downpayment, they are more likely to get that home back. And, there are some P.A.’s written to utilize excessive seller paid concessions to get people into housing. It’s as if the regulations are asking the appraisers to help correct this situation in the market.

A Decrease In Mortgage Lending In These Price Ranges? Is there a decrease in mortgage lending in these price ranges or just harder to qualify for a mortgage loan….or both?

Bill-cobb-1280x720 as seen on youtube

Baton Rouge Real Estate Trends

Why Did RE Agent Send Appraiser 5 and 6 Year Old Homes As Comps For 20 Year Old Subject?

http://www.batonrougerealestateappraisal.com/ – Why Did RE Agent Send Appraiser 5 and 6 Year Old Homes As Comps For 20 Year Old Subject?

baton-rouge-pre-purchase-home-appraisalsThe longer I appraise homes for purchases, the less I understand about how homes are properly and ethically priced for listings! This post is about an example in the Greater Baton Rouge housing market I recently experienced. THE HOME DID NOT APPRAISE FOR THE PURCHASE PRICE! AND, this was one of those deals where they tried to roll in excessive seller paid concessions.

Disclaimer. In order to protect the identity of the Agent and the home in question, which is still Pending, details as to location and physical address are withheld.

Physical Details. Subject or home under contract is located somewhere in Greater Baton Rouge. Subject is 20 years old, 1,750sf to 2,000sf 3 bedrooms, 2 bathrooms located in a restricted subdivision where the homes are similar size and age. There is 1 sale and current listings in this development. Price range is somewhere between $180,000 to $220,000. While subject is in good condition, it’s not updated and has some inferior vinyl flooring.

Appraisal Inspection Setup & Request For Comps Used To Market Subject. As is my custom, at the same time the appraisal inspection was setup, the comps used to market the home were requested from Listing Agent. I’ve always believed that there are 2 to 3 real estate professionals involved in the sale or purchase of a home: the Listing Agent, Selling Agent and The Appraiser. Agents do know and see things in the market that appraisers do not and I want to know what I might be missing about a deal. School district could be an example. And, by requesting the comps up front, I hope to avoid an appeal or rebuttal later.

Home Was Priced High And The Sellers Gave it Away! Before visiting subject, I noticed subject was priced high and Agent provided 5 “sales”, which turned out NOT to be true comps. When I arrived at the home, the sellers were obviously nervous and were asking me questions about the appraisal and comps and making stating statements like, “I hope the home appraises with the extra concessions rolled in because we have a contract on another home…..”

The “Sales”, not “Comps” Sent. Also, Note That Appraisal Is Being Completed In March 2011 and Lenders Want Comps Within 90 to 180 Days Or 3 to 6 Months. Here’s a review of the 5 sales sent to me.

baton-rouge-pre-purchase-home-appraisalsSale #1, sold in 4/2010, is 200sf smaller in size, is similar in age but is updated. While this sale can be added a supplemental comp, this “sale” is too old for underwriters in 2011 to give heavy consideration to it.

Sale #2, sold in 6/2010, is 240sf smaller in size, was built in 2006 or is 5 years old, is located in a newer development with a newer design/appeal. So, design/appeal, age, location and condition are all superior. How is this “5″ year old home comparable to a 20 year old home? The 240sf difference in size raises the gross and net adjustments above underwriter tolerance of 15%, which indicates it’s not truly a comparable. Also, the 6/2010 “sale” is too old for underwriters in 2011 to give heavy consideration to it. I couldn’t believe what I was seeing here!

Sale #3, sold in 8/2010, is 312sf smaller in size, was built in 2005 or is 6 years old, is located in a newer development with a newer design/appeal AND an IG Pool. So, design/appeal, age, SLAB GRANITE COUNTERS, location, IG Pool and condition are all superior. How is this “6″ year old home comparable to a 20 year old home? The 312sf difference in size raises the gross and net adjustments above underwriter tolerance of 15%, which indicates it’s not truly a comparable. Also, the 8/2010 “sale” is too old for underwriters in 2011 to give heavy consideration to it. I couldn’t believe what I was seeing here!

Sale #4, sold in 10/2010 is within 75sf of subjects size, BUT was built in 2000 or is 11 years old, has a newer design/appeal AND is located on a half acre subdivision lot. So, design/appeal, age lot size and condition are all superior. How is this “11″ year old home comparable to a 20 year old home?

Sale #5, sold in 6/2010, is within 75sf of subjects size, is similar in age and condition. While this sale can be added a supplemental comp, this “sale” is too old for underwriters in 2011 to give heavy consideration to it.

What I did and didn’t do! This appraiser ended up using Sales 1, 4 & 5 in the report, Sale 4 simply because of the lack of sold homes in this market, along with 2 other more recent solds to comply with underwriters wanting more recent comps. This appraiser did not bend ethics and use Sales 2 & 3 as there was NO remote similarity to the subject and 5 & 6 year old homes. And, per lender requirements, this appraiser also added 3 listings into the report from the immediate market, of which were located in subjects own development.

THIS IS NOT A HOUSING MARKET OF STRENGTH AND….THIS POST HURRICANE KATRINA MARKET IS UNDERSTANDABLY AND LOGICALLY STILL CORRECTING! While GBR is performing better than the general U.S. housing market, we do face challenges. There has been a barrage of economic data and news suggesting national economic malaise in the housing sector with no signs whatever of even price footing, U.S. home prices continue to fall, and Corelogic and Baton Rouge Business Report reporting that Greater Baton Rouge is in its’ 6TH STRAIGHT MONTH OF HOME PRICE DECLINES. Greater Baton Rouge also has a fore closure and shadow inventory problem with 22 months of current shadow inventory. I’m not here to put down our market, but I do believe it’s about time we admit the challenges and price local listings accordingly, especially in the under $300K range where it really matters. The over $300,000 market appears to be weathering this downturn better than the under $300,000 markets.

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WHAT I DON’T SOMETIMES SEE IN THE GBR HOUSING MARKET. What I don’t see sometimes, not all the time, are GBR home listings priced according to these facts and trends above! Some homes are priced as if it were still 2007. Homes shouldn’t be listed based on the sellers dictating listing price but rather based on market support and a little cushion for negotiation and normal seller concessions.

LOW APPRAISALS. And, when homes are overpriced, this is why that “low appraisal” occurs. Low Appraisals could be the result of a faulty appraisal, and/or it could be more about bringing reality to the situation and reflecting a flaw in the expectations created by a faulty and unrealistic listing pricing at the beginning of the process. This is exactly the example I have provided in this article, the totally unrealistic listing price for this home that didn’t appraise. And, it didn’t appraise based on the Agent’s 3 actual comps and the 1 sale and 2 current listings in the subjects own development. I believe those 5 & 6 year old “sales” provided were to help prop up the deal, which didn’t happen with this appraiser!

REASONS FOR LOW APPRAISALS. Low Appraisals can occur because the home listed wasn’t actually measured…this does happen in our market. Low appraisals can occur because the listing agents failed to deduct excessive seller paid concessions when they completed that MLS CMA to price that home. And, the GBRMLS doesn’t automatically deduct excessive concessions. So, if local agents don’t do more than a simple MLS CMA to price their listings, if they don’t examine seller paid concessions on each sale they base value, they could end up with a low appraisal because that appraiser IS going to deduct excessive seller paid concessions on comps used based on Fannie Mae selling guidelines, which instructs appraisers to do so below:

Lenders are reminded that excessive sales concessions can artificially inflate the sales price of a property, which can then lead to an inflated market value. Particular attention should be given to unusual sales or financing concessions to ensure that they are properly accounted for in the appraisal report. Fannie Mae’s definition of market value is intended to ensure that appraisals reflect an opinion of market value after adjustments for any special or creative financing or sales
concessions have been made, such as interest rate buydowns or payment of condo or homeowners’ association fees
.”

Fannie Mae and FHA know that when there’s no skin-in-the-game or down payment, there could be a higher default rate!

baton-rouge-pre-purchase-home-appraisalsGREATER BATON ROUGE HOME BUYERS SHOULD GET A PRE-PURCHASE HOME APPRAISAL! With the local housing market still correcting and “some” overpriced listings in this market, it’s this appraisers advice to get a Pre-Purchase Home Appraisal before negotiations!

Baton Rouge Real Estate Trends

Baton Rouge Real Estate: North Baton Rouge Housing Market 2010 Face Challenges

http://www.batonrougemarketmetrics.com/ – Baton Rouge Real Estate: North Baton Rouge Housing Market 2010 Face Challenges, 70805

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I’m appraising a home on Wilmot Street, around 1,200sf, 2 bedroom, 1 bathroom. The Fannie Mae 1004MC or Market Conditions report has the appraiser examine the “Sub-Market” or those comps that are actually comparable to the subject property instead of the entire 70805 market. So, this chart below are solds since 6/2008 and current listings from $35,000 up to $90,000 for 1,000sf to 1,400sf homes.

north-baton-rouge-housing-market

Right off, the first trend we see is that the sales over the past year have declined from 21 7-12 months ago, 7 4-6 months ago and now only 3 sales in the past 3 months. So, sales have almost come to a halt. Absorption rate has declined from 3.5 to 1. Active Listings have increased from 21 to 37, increase of 76%. So, there is a documented oversupply. In fact, for this appraisal, there are 37 competing listings and only 31 competing sales in the past year, more listings than solds in the past 12 months. Months of Competing Housing Supply has increased from 6 to 37 months, an increase of 517%. The median comparable sales price has declinced from $59,000 to $45,000 to $39,500. The median comparable sales days on the market has increased from 83 to 173, an increase of 108%. WITH ALL OF THIS BAD NEWS AND DOCUMENTED NEGATIVE TRENDS, THE AGENTS HAVE DECIDED TO IGNORE THESE TRENDS AND LIST THE OVERSUPPLY OF LISTINGS IN THE $69,900 RANGE! SO, WHEN THESE OVERPRICED LISTINGS ARE UNDER CONTRACT, WILL THE APPRAISERS BE BLAMED FOR “LOW BALL APPRAISALS” BECAUSE THESE HOMES DON’T APPRAISE? FOOD FOR THOUGHT!

NOTE: Based on information from the Greater Baton Rouge Association of REALTORS®\MLS for the period of June 1, 2008 to December 17, 2010. This information was extracted on 12/17/2010.

Baton Rouge Real Estate Trends

Appraisers In Zachary Louisiana 70791: Lake Pointe Subdivision 2010 Update

http://www.zacharylouisianarealestate.info/ – Appraisers In Zachary Louisiana 70791: Lake Pointe Subdivision 2010 Update. There’s ups and downs to report for this higher end market!

lake-pointe-subdivision-zachary-la-70791

Entrance Image Source: http://lakepointezachary.com/

1836 Lake Pointe Ave

Solds In Lake Pointe from 1/2010 to 12/03/2010 revealed:
Average Sales Price: $271,400 ($257,700 in 2009 =’s +$5.3%)
Average Sold Price Sq. Ft.: $121/sf ($117.44/sf in 2009 =’s +3%)
Median Sold Price: $252,000 ($265,000 in 2009 =’s -4.9% Decline)
Number of Sales: 5 (5 in 2009)
Average Number of Days On Market: 158 (129 in 2009)
Low To High: $236,000 to $360,000 ($204,000 to $330,000 in 2009)
Number of Sold REO/Foreclosures Noted In MLS: 0
Current # Listings: 1, 0 Are Foreclosures
Current Listings Prices: $279,900

1684 Lake Pointe Avenue

WHY WE RELY ON MEDIAN SALES PRICE VERSUS AVERAGE SALES PRICE?

Median Sales Price is the barometer by which the National Association of Realtors utilizes to report on national housing markets. Average Sales Price tends to take all of the home sales prices from the lowest, say $50,000, to the highest, say $1,000,000, and state the average of them all, sometimes skewing the numbers because of the extreme highs and lows. Median Sales Price tends to focus more on the middle of where the bulk of home sales prices are taking place. Generally, the Average Sales Price is going to be higher because it includes the extreme high sales prices in a given market. Fannie Mae understands the problem with using Average Sales Price and now demands home appraisers perform the 1004MC or Market Conditions form based on narrower “sub-market” parameters for comp search. This means that on a 2,000sf home, appraisers would be searching for comps with say 200sf below and above 2,000sf, say 1,800sf up to 2,200sf with similar ages and other similar characteristics.

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NOTE: Based on information from the Greater Baton Rouge Association of REALTORS®\MLS for the period of January 1, 2009 to December 3, 2010. This information was extracted on 12/03/2010.

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Baton Rouge Real Estate Trends

Greater Baton Rouge BPO Appraisals, Appraiser Assisted BPO and AVM Alternative

http://www.batonrougebpoappraisals.info/ – Greater Baton Rouge BPO Appraisals, Appraiser Assisted BPO and AVM Alternative

baton rouge bpo home appraisals

Welcome To The $100. 00 Greater Baton Rouge Comparable Sales Reports! Greater Baton Rouge Comparable Sales Reports Is A Desktop Appraisal Service Performed By William D. Cobb, CREA, with Accurate Valuations Group, Serving East & West Baton Rouge Parish, Northern Ascension Parish and Western Livingston Parish. William Uses An Approved Fannie Mae & Freddie Mac Appraisal Form (SSDVR) To Complete This Report.

What Is An SSDVR Report? A desktop appraisal report conducted by Louisiana State Certified Appraiser, William D. Cobb, CREA, License #R0851. Bill will drive-by the home being appraised, rely upon the physical data the client provides, research the MLS database, select the 3 most similar and competitive sales/comps and render a value opinion.

baton rouge bpo avm appraisals

Baton Rouge Real Estate Trends

Greater Baton Rouge BPO Appraisals, Appraiser Assisted BPO & AVM Alternative 225-293-1500

http://www.batonrougebpoappraisals.info/ - Home Of The Greater Baton Rouge Similar Sales Desktop Valuation Reports (SSDVR) – Compliant With USPAP & Fannie Mae & Freddie Mac, 225-293-1500

baton rouge bpo home appraisals

100dollarbpoappraisalsWelcome To The $100. 00 Greater Baton Rouge Comparable Sales Reports! Greater Baton Rouge Comparable Sales Reports Is A Desktop Appraisal Service Performed By William D. Cobb with Accurate Valuations Group, Serving East & West Baton Rouge Parish, Northern Ascension Parish and Western Livingston Parish. William Uses An Approved Fannie Mae & Freddie Mac Appraisal Form (SSDVR) To Complete This Report.

What Is An SSDVR Report? A desktop appraisal report conducted by Louisiana State Certified Appraiser, William D. Cobb, CREA, License #R0851. Bill will drive-by the home being appraised, rely upon the physical data the client provides, research the MLS database, select the 3 most similar and competitive sales/comps and render a value opinion.

baton rouge avm home appraisals

Baton Rouge Real Estate Trends

Greater Baton Rouge Homeowner Should Not Have Added $60,000 Pool In A $150,000 Subdivision

http://www.batonrougerealestateappraisal.com/ - Baton Rouge Real Estate: Greater Baton Rouge Homeowner Should Not Have Added $60,000 Pool In A $150,000 Subdivision

greater baton rouge ig pool

I ran across a situation in the Greater Baton Rouge Housing Market where a homeowner, located in a subdivision where the average home is worth $150,000, installed a $60,000 Gunite Inground Pool recently. Now, their home is on the market and they are about to be taken through the “school of hard knocks” when the appraiser doesn’t give them any more than $5,000 to maybe $7,500 contributory value for their pool. I’ve been appraising now for 18 years and see these types of situation several times per year and just shake my head when I see this happen.

ACCURATE VALUATIONS LOGO BorderWhy only $5,000 to $7,500 contributory value for a $60,000 “gunite” pool? It’s not that “blankety blank” appraiser’s fault. It’s actually the market, the buyers, that don’t reward such expensive overimprovements. And mortgage underwriters that scrutinize the appraisals when appraisers do.

Is It Common For IG Pools In That Market? Let’s venture this thought process in the eyes of the appraiser! You have to look at the overall market and ask if it’s common for $60,000 inground pools to be installed in subdivisions where the homes are $150,000, which it’s not. Then ask yourself if the average owner in Such-And-Such Subdivision has an inground pool and the answer is no. Look at an aerial map for proof. Is it common for any buyer in the general Greater Baton Rouge market to pay more than $7,500 for a pool on an existing home sale where the price of the home is below $200,000? That answer is generally no as well. There may be exceptions, but they would be very rare.

Mortgage Underwriting Questions? What happens if the appraiser gives more than $5,000 to $7,500 on a pool is the underwriters coming back with a request for comps where the market actually gave that much for a pool. It’s at that point where the sale may fall apart because the appraiser can’t support giving the subject home that much value for that $60K pool in a $150,000 subdivision. I’m sure from the photos that it’s a nice pool, but in this national mortgage meltdown market where this loan may be underwritten in New Jersey, Manhatten NY or California or elsewhere where pools don’t carry much value, then giving too much value to the pool may even cause the lender not to want to do the loan and/or throw up red-flags.

There’s two lessons here!

1.) If you plan on remaining in your home until you die, then live it up and build whatever you want in your backyard (ig pools, metal workshop, that covered patio, wood decking, stone walk-ways, etc..).

2.) If you don’t plan on remaining in your home until you die, and your investment dollars must be wisely spent, then be very cautious about installing ig pools, metal workshops, covered patios, wood decks, stone walk-ways, etc.. because they don’t bring much return on investment. The lesson here is not to invest money in the your backyard and expect to receive dollar-for-dollar return on your investment. The lesson is to invest on the home itself before investing in your backyard.

greater baton rouge pool

Greater Baton Rouge’s Home Appraiser – Bill Cobb! Your Local Home Value “Trust Agent”! http://www.accuratevg.com/

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Baton Rouge Real Estate Trends