This is an on-going series into the decline of Greater Baton Rouge Home Values and why potential buyers should beware and not pay too much for “some” local overpriced listings. YES, there are overpriced listings in the Greater Baton Rouge Housing Market! Bill strongly recommends in this housing environment to obtain a Pre-Purchase Appraisal to gain ALL of the facts before making a local home purchase decision.

A recent home appraisal in and analysis of Old Jefferson revealed this interesting finding. From 2008 to 2011, the median sales price has continued to decline. From 2008 to 2010, the median sales prices were $149,900, $147,000, $145,000 and in 2011 it’s currently $140,200 based only on 4 sales (the chart below isn’t updated yet). Again, this is only based on 4 sales in the first 4.5 months of 2011. In 2010, there were 22 total sales, so one can see that the number of home sales has dropped considerably. NOTE: There is no indication per GBRMLS sheets that any of these 4 2011 sales were distressed or foreclosures, just a correction to a lower price level.

THE CORRECTION IN HOME PRICES – This is becoming the familiar “Stair Step Up and Stair Step Down”…..The Climb And Then Descent Of The Stairs In This Chart Below Visually Explains The Correction! And, so does the chart below it showing a correction.

The Chart below shows a considerable correction since May 2010 for home comparable to a larger 2,000sf in Zip 70817. Yes, the average home in Old Jefferson is 1,500sf to 1,600sf. The home I was appraising had an addition.

CURRENT LISTINGS. There are 20 current listings from $117,000 to $174,900 with 18 active and only 2 pending or under contract. So, there is a major oversupply of available homes for sale in Old Jefferson. The Average Listing Price per sq. ft. is $91.23/sf, which is too high and the reason these homes aren’t selling. If you examine the chart above, 2011 support is now in the $80s/sf, not the $90s/sf. This is called sellers in denial. AND, the 2 pendings have an average listing prices of $83.60/sf, further proof that reaching $91/sf in Old Jefferson was something that took place in 2010 but no longer in 2011. And, CoreLogictells us that Baton Rouge is in its’ 8th straight month of declines.

DISTRESSED LISTINGS. Out of the 20 current listings, 1 is a foreclosure and 3 are short sales. So, 20% of available listings are distressed in nature.

NOTE: Based on information from the Greater Baton Rouge Association of REALTORS®\MLS for the period of January 1, 2008 to May 20, 2011. This information was extracted on 5/206/2011. YES, permission was granted by GBRMLS to use Subdivision Price Trends Chart Report!

AUTHOR’S BIO:

Bill Cobb is Greater Baton Rouge’s Home Appraiser frequently called upon by banks, homeowners, and savvy real estate investors to assess property values. A home appraiser with 20 years experience, Bill Cobb brings a wealth of knowledge to the table as a home appraiser.

Bill’s company, Accurate Valuations Group, serves Greater Baton Rouge (East Baton Rouge Parish, West Baton Rouge Parish, Western Livingston Parish and Northern Ascension Parish).

Contact Bill Cobb and Accurate Valuations Home Appraisal Group for your next home appraisal:
Office: 225-293-1500, Cell: 225-953-0638
Fax: 1-866-663-6065
info@accuratevg.com
http://www.accuratevg.com/

This is an on-going series into the decline of Greater Baton Rouge Home Values and why potential buyers should beware and not pay too much for “some” local overpriced listings. YES, there are overpriced listings in the Greater Baton Rouge Housing Market! Bill strongly recommends in this housing environment to obtain a Pre-Purchase Appraisal to gain ALL of the facts before making a local home purchase decision.

A recent home appraisal in and analysis of Park Forest East revealed this interesting finding. From 2009 to 2010, the median sales price remained stable at $135,000. However, in 2011, based on 3 sales, 2 of which were foreclosures, the median sales price has slipped to just $81,000. Again, this is only based on 3 sales in the first 4 months of 2011. In 2010, there were 11 total sales. Again, this drop is due to foreclosures and/or distressed sales.

THE CORRECTION IN HOME PRICES – This is becoming the familiar “Stair Step Up and Stair Step Down”…..The Climb And Then Descent Of The Stairs In This Chart Below Visually Explains The Correction! And, so does the chart below it showing a major correction.

The Chart below shows a considerable correction since May 2010 for home comparable to a 1,400sf in Zip 70814.

CURRENT LISTINGS. There are 9 current listings from $99,500 to $140,000 with 7 active and 2 pending. The Average Price per sq. ft. listing is $85.48/sf, which is too high. If you examine the chart above, 2009 and 2010 support was at $83/sf and $72/sf. And, CoreLogic tells us that Baton Rouge is in its’ 7th straight month of declines. So, this average $85.48/sf is far too high. Why are these 7 listings, in 2011, priced above 2009 and 2010 when the market was stronger then. The 2 pendings average $65.69/sf.

NOTE: Based on information from the Greater Baton Rouge Association of REALTORS®\MLS for the period of January 1, 2005 to May 6, 2011. This information was extracted on 5/6/2011. YES, permission was granted by GBRMLS to use Subdivision Price Trends Chart Report!

AUTHOR’S BIO:

Bill Cobb is Greater Baton Rouge’s Home Appraiser frequently called upon by banks, homeowners, and savvy real estate investors to assess property values. A home appraiser with 20 years experience, Bill Cobb brings a wealth of knowledge to the table as a home appraiser.

Bill’s company, Accurate Valuations Group, serves Greater Baton Rouge (East Baton Rouge Parish, West Baton Rouge Parish, Western Livingston Parish and Northern Ascension Parish).

Contact Bill Cobb and Accurate Valuations Home Appraisal Group for your next home appraisal:
Office: 225-293-1500, Cell: 225-953-0638
Fax: 1-866-663-6065
info@accuratevg.com
http://www.accuratevg.com/

Potential $20K Loss. This is an on-going series into the decline of Greater Baton Rouge Home Values and why potential buyers should beware and not pay too much for “some” local overpriced listings. YES, there are overpriced listings in the Greater Baton Rouge Housing Market! Bill strongly recommends in this housing environment to obtain a Pre-Purchase Appraisal to gain ALL of the facts before making a local home purchase decision. In the appraisal I recently completed, the home sold for $155,900 in 2007, a Post Hurricane Katrina high price, and is now on the market for $136,000. If this home sells for $136,000, then homeowner only loses $20,000 and will lose a total of $28,160 after paying the selling commission.

A recent home appraisal in and analysis of Villa Del Rey revealed this interesting finding. From 2009 to 2010 to 2011, the median sales price has declined from $145,000 to $137,500 to now $136,000 (chart below is not updated) into 2011 based only on 3 sales. This drop is due to foreclosure and/or distressed sales. Actually, the chart below is incorrect because GBRMLS reports “38″ solds in 2010, not just 33, with a median of $137,500. Of those 38 sales, 11 or 29% were foreclosures, which is quite high. And, in 2011, the 3 solds only sold for $119,000, $136,000 and $139,000 indicating these sold below market.

THE CORRECTION IN HOME PRICES – This is becoming the familiar “Stair Step Up and Down”…..The Climb And Then Descent Of The Stairs In This Chart Below Visually Explains The Correction!

NOTE: Based on information from the Greater Baton Rouge Association of REALTORS®\MLS for the period of January 1, 2005 to May 3, 2011. This information was extracted on 5/3/2011. YES, permission was granted by GBRMLS to use Subdivision Price Trends Chart Report!

AUTHOR’S BIO:

Bill Cobb is Greater Baton Rouge’s Home Appraiser frequently called upon by banks, homeowners, and savvy real estate investors to assess property values. A home appraiser with 20 years experience, Bill Cobb brings a wealth of knowledge to the table as a home appraiser.

Bill’s company, Accurate Valuations Group, serves Greater Baton Rouge (East Baton Rouge Parish, West Baton Rouge Parish, Western Livingston Parish and Northern Ascension Parish).

Contact Bill Cobb and Accurate Valuations Home Appraisal Group for your next home appraisal:
Office: 225-293-1500, Cell: 225-953-0638
Fax: 1-866-663-6065
info@accuratevg.com
http://www.accuratevg.com/

Greater Baton Rouge Home Prices, in general, are in correction mode per the CoreLogic report for the 7th straight month and reflected in local housing statistics I see almost daily. The favorable Highland Creek Subdivision is no exception.

Highland Creek. Per the HOA Website http://highlandcreekbr.com/, “Highland Creek is an awesome neighborhood off highland road in beautiful Baton rouge. It is conventialy located to downtown BR, the LSU campus, three major retial outlets and two hospitals; great for kids of all ages.” Highland Creek was developed around 1982-1983 with 1 to 2 story garden homes ranging from 1,076sf up to 2,330sf situated on smaller lots. Approximately 75% of Highland Creek is located in the Flood Zone per the FEMA map below, map from a recent appraisal.

Highland Creek Homes

THE CORRECTION IN HOME PRICES – The Climb And Then Descent Of The Stairs In This Chart Below Visually Explains The Correction!

As with Hurricane Katrina, the Median Sales Price rose from $125,000 in 2005 up to $138,500 in 2006. Then median sales price from 2007 to 2009 from $145,000, $147,500 and $154,000 rounded. 2010 began the descent to $148,500 and 4 sales in 2011 currently have it at $126,500. At the highs, the Average Sold Price was at $104/sf and now in 2011 it’s at $84/sf. YES, 2 of the 4 2011 sales were foreclosures helping to bring down the 2011 numbers. However, even the 2 non-foreclosures sold at $90/sf and $99/sf showing a correction from 2008 and 2009 highs.

However, is it only Highland Creek correcting or are other competing developments correcting as well? YES, other developments are correcting as well. This chart below of 64 competing home sales in the 1250sf to 1650sf range in 70808, 70810 and 70820, homes in subdivisions that would be comparable to Highland Creek, shows a -6.2% decline.

NOTE: Based on information from the Greater Baton Rouge Association of REALTORS®\MLS for the period of January 1, 2005 to May 2, 2011. This information was extracted on 5/2/2011. YES, permission was granted by GBRMLS to use Subdivision Price Trends Chart Report!

For More Information On Highland Creek, Check Out The HOA Website here:

Author’s Bio:

Bill Cobb is Greater Baton Rouge’s Home Appraiser frequently called upon by banks, homeowners, and savvy real estate investors to assess property values. A home appraiser with 20 years experience, Bill Cobb brings a wealth of knowledge to the table as a home appraiser.

Bill’s company, Accurate Valuations Group, serves Greater Baton Rouge (East Baton Rouge Parish, West Baton Rouge Parish, Western Livingston Parish and Northern Ascension Parish).

Contact Bill Cobb and Accurate Valuations Home Appraisal Group for your next home appraisal:
Office: 225-293-1500, Cell: 225-953-0638
Fax: 1-866-663-6065
info@accuratevg.com
http://www.accuratevg.com/

Solds In The Northwoods from 1/2010 to 10/07/2010 revealed:
Average Sales Price: $221,617 ($155,288 in 2009)
Average Sold Price Per Sq. Ft.: $107/sf ($107/sf in 2009)
Median Sold Price: $226,950 ($148,450 in 2009)
Number of Sales: 3 (8 in 2009)
Average Number of Days On Market: 86
Low To High: $208,000 to $229,900
Number of Sold REO/Foreclosures Noted In MLS: 0
Current # Listings: 5, 1 Foreclosure
Current Listings Prices: $121,900 To $215,000

NOTE: The Northwoods is a difficult market to report in terms of the broad range of home sizes, styles and price ranges. For example, the current listings are from $121,900 up to $215,000, a gap of $93,000, which is quite unusual. As is the median sales price in 2009 being $148,450 and then in 2010 being $226,950. This isn’t necessarily because home values have increased but rather because 3 of the larger and newer homes sold in 2010 and none on the smaller cheaper priced home did sell.

LESS SALES, SLOWER MARKET. It’s noteworthy that there were 8 sales in 2009 and only 3 so far into 2010.

Data used with permission of the GBRAR MLS from dates 1/1/2009 to 10/07/2010, extracted on 10/07/2010

Ralph Bivins reports on the broad consensus from economists, analysts and experts at the National Association of Real Estate Editors 44th Annual Real Estate Journalism Conference in Austin.

In Mr. Bivins post at “The housing recession is not over and other myth-defying truths from national real estate experts“, we learn that experts, such as Stan Humphries at Zillow, are saying the bottom will be long and flat, not hit bottom and see a V-shaped recovery.

The four myths about the housing market discussed were:

“Humphries listed his four “myths” about the housing market:

1. The housing recession is over.

It’s not. Home prices are continuing to fall in some places and the market won’t hit bottom until the third quarter of 2010.

2. The first-time home buyer tax credits saved the market.

Wrong, Humphries said. Research shows that only one in five of the buyers that took the tax credit bought a home they would not have purchased anyway.

3. The foreclosure problem is going away.

Actually, foreclosures are still increasing and they will plague the market for awhile, Humphries said.

4. Home appreciation will begin again after the market hits bottom.

Not hardly. Home values will not rise significantly for quite some time, Humphries said.”

Read the entire post by clicking the Real Estate Confidential logo above.

How much of this applies to the Baton Rouge Real Estate market is not totally known. While the Baton Rouge market has weathered this national storm fairly well, kind of Teflon coated, going forward we do operate within the national economic framework. We do have leadership in Washington now that opposes the industries that fund our Louisiana economy (oil, gas, chemical industry and the result Obama moratorium on drilling). What will the impact on Louisiana and Baton Rouge from this oil spill that could just get worse if BP can’t cap this leak and if BP files for bankruptcy? And, we do have local real estate challenges with a slower housing market, mortgage delinquincies, relatively high housing cost (new construction pricing is still very high compared to local incomes), and still an oversupply of high-end housing resulting in a softer high-end market. Check www.fsbobr.com and you’ll find plenty of high-end housing on the market.

New High-End Home Just Sits On The Market With No Buyers Since August of 2008 In 3 Different MLS Listings…Possibly Because Of Sticker Shock Pricing And Financing Challenges In U.S. Mortgage Market. Was The Greater Baton Rouge High-End Pricing Sustainable?

NOTE: About Ralph Bivins: Ralph Bivins, former president of the National Association of Real Estate Editors, is editor-in-chief of realtynewsreport.com and was a chief organizer of the NAREE conference.

The chemical explosion, see below, last week took me by surprise! I’ve driven down this road many times over the years as it’s a major north-south traffic artery. What we’re finding out 1 week after the explosion is that approximately 95% of locals had no clue that there was even a hazardous chemicals “Plant” in operation off this road, especially those that lived within 1 mile. Obviously, this was not just a chemical storage warehouse.

The article above about population is somewhat mis-stated. It states that there are more than 100 people living within 1/2 mile of the explosion. That’s kind of like saying more than 100 people live in Denham Springs. There are far many more than that living within 1/2 mile. There are 2 major residential subdivisions witin 1/8 mile of this warehouse. The residents of Carlton Oaks weren’t allowed back into their homes for 3 days after the explosion and now wonder have their home values plummeted over night. As I write this, almost one week after the explosion, some of the residents of the large manufactured housing development directly adjacent to the warehouse still have not been able to return to their homes.

Many locals are asking what happened last week and what idiots in the local and municipal governments approved the occupancy permits of a hazardous chemical plant in the middle of a residential neighborhood? The company name itself, Coco’s Resources Warehouse, doesn’t clearly explain that this was a hazardous materials “plant”, not just a storage warehouse.

North Park, a large 100 acre public recreational facility located within 1/2 mile, is presumed to have had 100s of kids and families there during the Easter holidays week off from school as the blast occurred shortly after 2pm. There are so many unanswered questions….and now a lawsuit. It’s my hope that the lawsuit not only targets the company who owned the warehouse but also those local and Parish governments that approved such a hazardous use in this residential neighborhood. They truly bear the majority of the blame was for this explosion.

Local Market Monitor Announces Release of Third Quarter Home Price For Largest US Markets, article here! Here’s a snippet:

“According to the forecast, among the largest US markets—identified as those with populations greater than 600,000—the 10 markets with the best expected performance in home price are:

Baton Rouge, LA
Buffalo-Niagara Falls, NY
Columbia, SC
Dallas-Plano-Irving, TX
Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
Houston-Sugar Land-Baytown, TX
Little Rock-North Little Rock-Conway, AR
Omaha-Council Bluffs, NE-IA
Pittsburgh, PA
San Antonio, TX
Syracuse, NY

These top markets, where home values are expected to remain level, are among those markets that did not have a big housing boom and have had relatively small job losses over the past year. Home prices in these areas are generally below the US average and reflect where the recession has so far had a relatively mild impact. Dallas, San Antonio and Omaha have all experienced a 1.6 percent job loss over the past year, and jobs have actually increased in Baton Rouge.”

This home at 10305 Welbeck Court. In Westchase, some home values have dropped a little – and some a lot.

Shannon Behnken, with the Tampa Tribune, discusses how “Age and makeup of your neighborhood can determine home value loss”. The article is located here. Here’s a snippet:

“Data show that home values can vary widely, depending on the neighborhood, the age of the home and the economic stability of neighbors.

No Tampa Bay area neighborhood is immune to this housing downturn, but some neighborhoods are suffering more, housing professionals say.

“In general, areas that had minimal decreases have been around for some time and were not as susceptible to investors,” said David Teacher, a property appraiser with Superior Residential Appraisal Services Inc.

Even in those neighborhoods, however, there are exceptions.”

REAL ESTATE APPRAISERS…..WHAT’S YOUR EXPERIENCE WITH THIS ISSUE?